Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,649$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(614 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $158$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(37.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(124.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $585$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,972$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(8.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(90,246.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,766$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,604.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,604.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $77,206$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,684$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,745.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,745.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $256$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(113 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(101.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(245.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $571$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,601$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,280.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,280.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $333$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(131 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{326.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(326.6\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $288$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,135$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,235.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13,235.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $620$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(257 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(95.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{600.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(600.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,361$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,962$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(939 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(129.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,826.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,826.5\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(6 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(151.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $114$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,620$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,834.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(62,834.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,879$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,652.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,652.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,949$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $313,392$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292,341.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(292,341.2\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,611$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,441.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(44,441.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $265,318$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $250,825$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239,423.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(239,423.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,209$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,453.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,453.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,368$ on 2020-08-10
